Crackars Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect has been described, by the US Vice President Al Gore, as the potentially most dangerous environmental
problem facing mankind, with consequences second only to nuclear war.

The greenhouse effect can be visualized as follows: Imagine that Earth has been encircled by a giant glass sphere. The heat of
the sun penetrates through the glass. Some of the heat is absorbed by the Earth, and some of it is radiated back towards space.
The radiated heat reaches the glass sphere and is prevented from dispersing any further.

Similarly, the earth is surrounded by a blanket of gases. This blanket traps energy in the atmosphere, much the same way as
glass traps heat inside a greenhouse. This results in an accumulation of energy, and the overall warming of the atmosphere. The
'greenhouse effect' is the popular expression for the above process.

Global warming and climate change result from the greenhouse effect. The consequences of global warming and climate change
could well include:

        the eradication of entire ecosystems
        increased frequency and intensity of storms, hurricanes, floods and droughts
        melting glaciers and polar ice
        rising sea levels resulting in the permanent flooding of vast areas of heavily
        populated lands and the creation of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees
        increased frequency of forest fires
        spread of tropical diseases due to insect proliferation
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Climate models show that atmospheric temperatures will increase by between 1.5 and 4.5 C by the year 2100 if a "wait and
see and do nothing" approach is adopted. The global temperature increase since the last ice age (10,000 years ago) has been
about 5 C.

This may not sound like much, but such drastic temperature rise would be unprecedented for modern civilization, both in terms
of its intensity and its rate of increase. It is projected to have drastic social, economic and ecological implications of
unpredictable dimensions:

        Because of thermal expansion of the water and melting of continental glaciers sea levels would rise, possibly as much
     as two feet (0.6 metres), by the end of next century.

        Rising temperatures could lead to changes in regional wind systems which would influence global rainfall distribution
     and lead to the redistribution and frequency of floods, droughts and forest fires. Windstorms and hurricanes could
     become more frequent and more intense.

        Increased sea temperatures would cause coral bleaching and the destruction of coral reefs around the world.

        Climate change would create favorable conditions for growth in insect populations. This would likely have a negative
     effect on agriculture and human health, and result in a spread of malaria and other tropical diseases.

        Water supplies would become disrupted in some regions, particularly in already vulnerable, arid areas.
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Yes, it does. The greenhouse effect is a natural process which made life on Earth possible. Without naturally occurring
greenhouse gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, the Earth's surface temperature would be
33 degrees Celsius cooler - a chilly -18 C rather than the tolerable 15 C.

However, since the beginning of industrialization, 200 years ago, concentrations of these gases have increased substantially . It
is estimated that the Earth's average temperature has risen by 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C since 1880 because of emissions of
greenhouse gases from human activity.

The main sources of these emissions--particularly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide --are the combustion of large
amounts of fossil fuels in the energy and transport sectors, deforestation and the use of intensive farming methods.

When we talk about the greenhouse effect we mean the ENHANCED effect which is caused by the increase of greenhouse
gases from human sources.
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These terms are often used to describe the same problem, but actually relate to cause and effect, or problem and consequence.
The greenhouse effect is the cause - and global warming and climate change are the consequences.

The greenhouse effect causes an accumulation of heat (or energy) in the Earth's atmosphere. The global climate must then
adjust to deal with that extra accumulation of energy, and these adjustments result in global warming and climate changes.

Global warming results from an increase in the temperature of the Earth's lower atmosphere. Climate changes result from
alterations to regional climatic events such as rainfall patterns, evaporation and cloud formation.
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The greenhouse effect is caused by gases in the atmosphere which have the ability to absorb the sun's energy that is usually
radiated back into space from Earth. Energy from the sun comes into the earth as short-wave radiation; some is absorbed and
some is radiated back as long-wave radiation. The 'greenhouse gases' allow the short-wave radiation to pass through to Earth
but absorb the long-wave radiation that is reflected back to space. These gases include naturally occurring gases - primarily
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides - as well as industrial chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

The problem is that human activities have increased the atmospheric concentration of these gases well beyond their natural
levels, and have introduced new greenhouse gases, such as CFCs. This in turn is throwing the natural climatic systems off
balance.

One of the major greenhouse gases from human sources is carbon dioxide (CO2). While CO2 is naturally occurring, its
concentration in the atmosphere is rapidly increasing because of the burning of the fossil fuels- oil, coal and gas.

Human activity is not only producing more CO2, but is also severely damaging the ability of the earth to absorb carbon - via its
carbon sinks - the forests and oceanic plankton. Growing forests absorb CO2. Massive worldwide forest destruction results in
much fewer trees to soak up CO2, and releases the stored CO2 from the trees into the atmosphere.

Similarly, the destruction of the ozone layer by human-made chemicals, such as CFCs, is allowing increased levels of harmful
UV-B radiation to reach the surface of the earth. Increased levels of UV-B radiation could reduce the density of plankton in the
oceans. Since plankton are the primary carbon sink of the planet, reduction in their density could result in less CO2 being
absorbed from the atmosphere.Damage to the planet's carbon sinks, through deforestation and ozone layer depletion, thus makes a direct contribution to the
enhanced greenhouse effect.
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There is an important difference between the CO2 produced by nature and that emitted by human activities. While nature
produces about 30 times more CO2 than human activity, the carbon emitted by nature is part of a finely balanced cycle. The
emissions by humans are over and above the natural balance, and consequently result in a net increase in the concentrations of
atmospheric CO2.

Since the industrial revolution about 850 billion tonnes of CO2 have been emitted due to combustion of fossil fuels, oil, coal and
natural gas. An additional 370 billion tonnes have been added through changes in land use and deforestation.

Every year humans emit around 25 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, which equals approximately 48,000 tonnes
every minute.

Some estimates show that a reservoir of 37, 000 billion tonnes of CO2 is buried in the ground as oil, coal and gas. The largest
portion of this CO2 reservoir is in coal, and the second largest is in natural gas. This is a chilling reminder of what is in store for
the planet, should we decide to continue to burn fossil fuels without any restrictions. Experts estimate that emission of 2,500
billion tonnes of CO2 - a mere 7% of the existing stock of fossil fuels - will result in a doubling of pre-industrial concentrations
of CO2.
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We know that the greenhouse effect is really happening through a number of sources:

        First, the fact that some gases have the ability of trapping heat is based on simple physics. No credible scientist
     questions this fact.

        Second, measurements since the mid-fifties have shown that the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are
     steadily increasing , and that these increases correspond to industrial emissions of greenhouse gases.

        Third, measurements of air trapped in 250, 000 year old ice cores show that: (a) the concentration of greenhouse
     gases in the atmosphere have varied in the past and these variations have occurred concurrently with temperature
     changes; and (b) greenhouse gases have been increasing since pre-industrial times.

Concentrations of CO2 - the most important greenhouse gas emitted by human activities - is now almost 30% higher than
before the industrial revolution, when the wide scale burning of fossil fuels started. It is estimated that during this time global
temperatures have increased between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees C . Most experts hold the enhanced greenhouse effect as the most
plausible explanation for this temperature increase.
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In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization WMO established
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), consisting of more than 300 of the world's leading experts, to
investigate climate change.

The IPCC concluded, both in 1990 and in 1992, that a doubling of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will lead to "serious
consequences for the world's social, economic and natural systems".

Among other things, the IPCC concluded that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities contributes to the natural
greenhouse effect and will lead to an additional warming of the atmosphere. The IPCC estimated that a doubling of CO2 would
lead to a global warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C.
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In most scientific circles the issue is no longer whether or not climate change is a potentially serious problem, but rather, how
the problem will develop, what its effects will be, how these can be best detected, and what measures can be taken to reduce
the damage.

The media, at times, leaves the impression that scientists are still discussing whether or not the climate is really changing as a
result of emissions of greenhouse gases. This is not the case. In actuality there is a broad agreement on this issue among
scientists and experts, as represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

No scientific material has ever been presented in scientific fora which challenges the main conclusions of the IPCC, in spite of
the fact that the IPCC has an open process that invites critical views.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its 1990 report that "the unequivocal detection of the
enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more". However, recent events are leading to an
reassessment of that statement by many scientists. Increasing number of scientists are declaring that the recently observed
global warming trend is not natural and is likely to be linked to the greenhouse effect.

There are many worrying indicators that something serious is happening:

        The nine hottest years on record have all occurred since 1980, despite the 2-3 year cooling effect of the Mount
     Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991. 1994 was the third or fourth hottest year on record.

        Since the mid-19th. Century global temperatures have increased by around 0.5 C. Temperatures have increased in all
     seasons in the Southern Hemisphere, and in spring, winter and autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.

        The European summer of 1994 brought temperatures up to 6 C above average, which induced massive fires in
     Southern Europe, chronic air pollution problems across the continent, and severe water shortages in many cities.

        Scientists at the Max-Planck Institute For Meteorology in Hamburg concluded from a recent examination of recent
     temperature records that they are 90 - 97.5 percent certain that the observed warming of the last 20-30 years is not due
     to natural variability.

        A study of global mean temperatures over 1000 years prompted Princeton University researchers to recently state,
     "...these results suggest that the observed trend is not a natural feature of the interaction between the atmosphere and
     oceans. Instead, it may have been induced by a sustained change in the thermal forcing, such as that resulting from
     changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol loading."

        According to scientists, the retreat of glaciers and the warming of the tundra permafrost is clear evidence of climatic
     change. Currently, there is a pronounced loss of ice mass and mountain glacier retreat occurring all over the world.

        Alpine plants are migrating upwards in the Austrian and Swiss Alps in response to warming temperatures, migratory
     birds are confused, trees and small animals are migrating Northward in Canada, marine organisms are migrating
     northward in California, all in response to warming air or sea temperatures.

        In May 1994, the British Antarctic Survey reported the fastest sustained atmospheric warming on the Antarctic
     Peninsula, since reliable worldwide temperature observations began 130 years ago. A startling 2.5 C warming in
     Antarctica has been reported since 1940. Linked with that warming has been the disintegration of Antarctic ice-sheets;
     the recent unforeseen calving of a giant iceberg, the size of Cyprus (78km long and 37km wide); the decline of adelie
     penguin populations; and the blooming of plants.

        The medical journal the Lancet reported in January 1994 that increased temperatures in Pakistan since 1878 have
     extended the period suitable for the development of the malarial parasite. Paul Epstein, of the Harvard School of Public
     Health, considers that climate change may be liberating pests and pathogens from ecological controls and predation. He
     cites as an example that mosquitoes which transmit yellow and dengue fever were formerly restricted to less than 1000
     metres in altitude by temperature, but are now reported at 2, 200 metres in India and Colombia.

        In January of 1995, Europe was devastated by yet another "hundred year" flood, its second in 15 months. The floods
     caused the evacuation of 250,000 people in Holland, and cost billions of US dollars in damages. According to Dutch
     climate expert Pier Vellinga, though the floods were no proof of climate change, they were consistent with global
     circulation models (GCMs) and with current CO2 concentrations. He said, "I would be surprised if something like this
     did not happen."
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It is important to understand the difference between climate and weather. Climate, essentially means 'average weather'.

While the details of weather, in a particular region, are hard to predict from week to week, weather patterns over years, that is
the climate, are easier to identify, understand and predict. The overall system - the climate - is predictable, even though the
details - the day to day weather - are much less certain.

For example, while it may be nearly impossible to predict, two months in advance, what the weather will be like on a given
Saturday in Paris, if the month in question is July, most climate models can correctly predict that it won't snow.
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The effects of global warming and climate change will not impact the same way upon every region in the world, or upon all
species of life. For example, a slight temperature increase in some of the colder parts of the world may create less hostile
conditions for human habitation and improve conditions for agriculture. Similarly, changing rainfall patterns may favour some
species over others.

However, favourable consequences of the greenhouse effect for some regions or species does not mitigate its overall negative
global impacts. The social, economic and ecological disruptions brought about by climatic changes worldwide are projected to
greatly outweigh regional benefits.

The impacts of global warming and climate change could become a source of increased tension between nations and regions .

While the developed, industrialized world is responsible for 75% of all CO2 emissions, these impacts will most likely hit hardest
upon the poorer, underdeveloped parts of the world.

For example, as sea levels rise countries like Bangladesh and Micronesia will suffer much more from the loss of valuable arable
and populated lands, then European or North American countries, even though in comparison, they will have emitted only a tiny
fraction of the greenhouse gases.

The effect of drowning coastlines could lead to hundreds of millions of climate refugees. Where will these refugees go? How
will they be cared for? Undoubtedly, such a catastrophe will seriously exacerbate the already critical refugee problem in the
world.

A severe disruption of the world's food supplies through floods, droughts, crop failures and diseases brought about by climate
change would trigger famines, wars and civil disorder in many countries.

Most human societies - especially subsistence agricultural societies - have evolved over many centuries by adapting to their
present climatic conditions. Their agriculture, technologies, economies and culture are based on familiar circumstances. These
societies are likely to find climate change, on the scale and speed predicted for the coming decades, to be very traumatic.

Similarly, many natural ecosystems will not be able to adjust fast enough to a rapidly warming world. This could lead to sharp
increases in the already alarming rate of species extinction on the planet.
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The bottom line is that the emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced. We must develop industrial practices and means of
transportation which are less dependent on fossil fuels, and ultimately, manage completely without them.

Since the problem is global, the solutions must be international. The international community took a first step in 1992 when the
Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 167 countries in Rio. The Framework Convention morally
committed industrialized countries to stabilizing their emissions of CO2 by the year 2000 at 1990 levels. However, since the
1990 levels of global CO2 emissions enhanced the greenhouse effect, the 1992 agreement is obviously inadequate.

Unfortunately, few, if any, of the industrialized countries will even meet this weak target. Consequently, the next step must be to
make this commitment legally binding, and to strengthen it through a CO2 Reduction Protocol aimed at meeting the objectives
of the Convention. The minimum goal must be a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2005, based on 1990 levels.

The industrialized countries have the lion's share of the responsibility for creating the problem and for finding the solutions. They
have developed their industrial base, and consequently, their higher standards of living, through the use of vast amounts of fossil
fuels. This has resulted in high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Furthermore, their per capita emissions of CO2 continues to be tens of times larger than all of the developing countries.

For example, the United States, the largest single emitter, annually pumps into the atmosphere approximately 20 tonnes of CO2
per person. With less then 5% of the world's population, the United States is responsible for 25% of global CO2 emissions. In
a comparison, the entire developing world, consisting of more than 100 countries and representing almost 80% of the world's
population, is responsible for approximately the same amount of CO2 emissions.
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It is becoming apparent that the world may not be able to survive with fossil fuels. This means that we must develop renewable
sources of energy which are environmentally sustainable. Fortunately, we already posses the technology at hand to provide
clean and reliable sources of energy for meeting human needs.

Renewable systems include solar photo voltaic power systems, solar hot water systems, wind turbines, bio-fuel plantations,
hydroelectric systems and so on. These energy sources are sustainable because they never 'run out'.

Most importantly, many renewable energy sources, such as wind power and solar thermal, are already cheaper than
conventional fuels-- even though the price of fossil fuels and nuclear power does not reflect their full environmental and
economic costs.

Many of these renewable energy options can be designed, built, and exploited locally and at less costs than conventional
systems. They contribute significantly to national economies because they exploit indigenous labour and materials.

In rural areas, the most sophisticated solar arrays can provide sufficient high-quality energy, at a cost lower than power from
electricity grids. Solar power could radically improve the living conditions of the world's poorest people. Fortunately, the
technology is spreading:

        200,000 solar photo voltaic systems have been installed around the world, including 37,000 in Mexico, 20,000 in
     Kenya, 16,000 in Indonesia, 15,000 in China, 4,500 in Sri Lanka, 4,000 in the Dominican Republic and 1,000 in Brazil.

        In Kenya more rural households obtain their electricity from solar energy than from the official policy of grid extension.

        In the Dominican Republic, Enersol, a US-based non-governmental organization, has successfully trained local
     entrepreneurs to assemble, market, install and service photo voltaic systems. The program began in 1985 with 6
     systems, grew to a 100 in 1987, more than 1,000 in 1989 and 4,500 in 1994. Since 1992, Enersol has replicated their
     successful Dominican program in Honduras and Guatemala and contributed to projects in Bolivia and Costa Rica. The
     Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF) has taken the Enersol model and has established a number of successful 'solar seed'
     projects around the world.

The European Commission's 'Power for the World Program' (a global photo voltaic action plan) estimates that providing solar
electricity to a billion people in the developing world would cost $60 billion ($3 billion a year for 20 years). This is only 3% of
annual energy investments in developing countries and less than 0.5% of current military expenditure.

Similar solar solutions are also available for industrial applications to supply reliable grid connected electricity. In the United
States, as part of a plan to develop a 1,000 MW Solar Enterprise Zone in the Nevada desert, ENRON has announced plans
to build a 100 MW solar power station. Such a power station would be the largest solar operation in the United States,
producing enough power for a city of 100,000 people.

The world needs a revolution in the use of renewable energy technologies.
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Here are some of practical steps that you can take to reduce human contributions to the greenhouse effect.

        LEARN about the greenhouse effect, global warming and climate change. Learn about alternate, non-fossil fuel based
     energy sources. Inform your family, friends and colleagues.

        WRITE to your local newspapers and other media outlets and demand they regularly feature stories regarding global
     warming, climate change and the greenhouse effect. The media has the responsibility to inform the public about this
     urgent subject.

        DEMAND your government fulfills your country's commitments to stabilizing emissions of CO2 by the year 2000 at
     1990 levels, and makes further commitments to a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2005, based on 1990 levels.

        TAKE responsibility for making simple changes in your energy consumption. The main greenhouse gas, CO2, comes
     from the burning of fossil fuels. Two key areas where individuals can help reduce the emissions of CO2 are in electricity
     consumption and transportation. Coal and gas-fired power plants burn huge amounts of fossil fuels and consequently
     emit vast amounts of CO2. A car produces more than its own weight in carbon dioxide each year, roughly 2 tonnes per
     year.

          Save Electricity:
               Turn off that light. Switch to energy efficient light bulbs. Encourage others to do the same.
               Buy energy efficient appliances. Use your consumer power to support industries and products that strive
               for high energy efficiency.
               Demand that your electricity utility reward energy saving consumers with lower rates, instead of offering the
               cheaper rates to the largest users of electricity.
          Reduce Private Transport:
               If you must drive a car, make sure it is fuel efficient. Try to cut down the amount of car journeys you make
               each week. Join a car pool to go to work or school.
               Bike or walk if you are going somewhere local.

          Support Public Transport:
               Public transport is the best way to cut CO2 emissions from cars. Effective public transport reduces the
               need for building new roads - another key source of CO2. In turn, the money saved on road building can
               go into improving the public transport sector. These measures will also improve urban air-quality.
               Use public transport.
               Demand your municipality provide fast, convenient and economical public transport.

        SUPPORT the development of renewable energy technologies.

        DEMAND your government aims to achieve a minimum 3% per year penetration of your country's energy supply
     system with renewable technologies.
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The Greenpeace International Climate Campaign aims to: (a) inform the public about the seriousness of climate change and
global warming; (b) create the political climate that will compel governments to take immediate and effective action; and (c)
promote environmentally sustainable solutions for generating and conserving energy to meet human needs.

Greenpeace maintains that: (a) only through public pressure will the politicians be motivated to deal with this problem in a truly
responsible manner; (b) since the causes and the impacts of climate change are global, the solutions must also be based on
international agreements. Consequently, the Greenpeace Climate Campaign is both national and international.

The Greenpeace campaign aims to influence national governments to institute domestic policies that substantially reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, and to support the development of environmentally sustainable options, such as renewable energy
generation. The campaign also intervenes in the international arena, for example at the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change, to push the world community towards deep cuts in global CO2 emissions.

Greenpeace demands that, at the minimum, CO2 reductions in industrialized countries must be reduced by 20% of 1990 levels,
by the year 2005 through a legally binding CO2 Reduction Protocol.

The Greenpeace Climate Campaign is solutions oriented. Greenpeace is working to shift global energy dependence from
environmentally dangerous sources of energy, such as fossil fuels and nuclear energy, to ecologically sustainable solar energy.
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